Ligue 1 · Sat · 15:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Toulouse are priced at 1.75, implying roughly 57% win probability and establishing them as clear market favourites
Troyes at 4.88 carry an implied win chance of about 20%, while the draw at 4.21 sits near 24%
The recommended Over 2.5 goals price of 1.69 implies close to 59% probability, with the model's own confidence slightly lower at 58%
The listed value edge on the goals bet is marginally negative (-1.52%), suggesting it is priced near fair value rather than offering a clear market inefficiency
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus
| Bookmaker | 1 · TOU | X | 2 · TRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.21 | 4.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.71 | 4.25 | 4.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71 | 4.25 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Toulouse host Troyes in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the balance of power. Best available odds price Toulouse at 1.75, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 57%, making them clear favourites heading into kick-off. Troyes, priced at 4.88, are given only around 20% by the market, while the draw at 4.21 sits at close to 24% implied probability. That spread points to a game the market expects Toulouse to control, though not overwhelmingly so given Troyes and the draw combine for over 40% of the implied outcome share. Away from the match result market, our model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.69, a price implying just under 60% probability, reflecting an expectation of a reasonably open contest rather than a cagey, low-scoring away trip for Troyes.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.69 reflects a moderately favoured scoring outcome rather than a standout value play, given the slightly negative edge. It is a reasonable, low-to-moderate risk angle on this Ligue 1 fixture, but bettors should treat it as close to fair-priced rather than a mispriced opportunity, and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.69, with a 58% confidence rating.
Toulouse are the clear favourites at 1.75, which implies a win probability of about 57%, compared to roughly 20% for Troyes at 4.88.
The draw is priced at 4.21, implying an approximate 24% probability according to the best available odds.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold against market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.69 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.52%, so it is close to fairly priced rather than a clear value opportunity.
Toulouse vs Troyes takes place Sat · 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
English 
