La Liga · Mon · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sevilla are priced at 2.02, implying roughly a 49.5 percent win probability, the clearest favourite tag in this match.
Osasuna's 4.11 price implies about 24.3 percent, while the draw at 3.6 implies close to 27.8 percent, keeping the draw a live outcome on paper.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.19 has a market-implied probability of about 45.7 percent against a 45 percent model confidence, giving a slim negative edge of -1.51 percent.
No value picks cleared the site's threshold versus market consensus, indicating the match-result odds broadly align with the model's own assessment.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.00 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.74 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.24 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.85 |
| 1-2 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.76 and 1.08. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sevilla's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SEV | X | 2 · CO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.60 | 4.11 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.97 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.96 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.96 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.42 | 3.93 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sevilla host CA Osasuna at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best-priced odds have Sevilla at 2.02, which implies a win probability of roughly 49.5 percent, well ahead of Osasuna's 4.11 (about 24.3 percent) and the draw at 3.6 (around 27.8 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest in Sevilla's favour, though La Liga draws are rarely dismissed outright given the draw price still sits above 25 percent implied probability. Away from the result market, the model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.19, which carries an implied probability near 45.7 percent against a model confidence of 45 percent, producing a small negative value edge of -1.51 percent. In short, it is a lean rather than a standout value play, and bettors should weigh it alongside the match-result prices before committing stakes.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.19 is the only highlighted angle, but its negative value edge of -1.51 percent means it is priced slightly against the model's own estimate rather than offering a clear edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk lean, not a confident value bet, and size stakes cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 45% confidence rating.
Sevilla are the clear market favourites at 2.02, implying about a 49.5 percent win probability, compared with Osasuna's 4.11 price (around 24.3 percent).
The draw is available at 3.6, which implies a probability of roughly 27.8 percent, keeping it a reasonably live outcome despite Sevilla's favourite status.
No selection cleared the site's value threshold; the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.19 actually shows a slight negative edge of -1.51 percent against the model's 45 percent confidence figure.
Sevilla vs CA Osasuna takes place Mon · 20:00 in the La Liga.
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