Ligue 1 · Sun · 16:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Rennes are priced at 1.74, implying roughly 57% win probability, making them the clear market favourites for this Ligue 1 meeting
Strasbourg's 4.6 and the draw's 4.52 imply very similar probabilities of about 22% each, suggesting the market sees little to separate those two outcomes
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by around 1.3%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these odds
The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.21 carries a -1.41% value edge, meaning it is priced slightly against the model's own 45% confidence estimate
| Bookmaker | 1 · REN | X | 2 · STR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 4.57 | 4.83 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.72 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.72 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.65 | 4.45 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.51 | 4.56 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rennes host Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. The best price on Rennes, 1.74, implies a win probability of roughly 57%, while Strasbourg's 4.6 points to around 22%, and the draw at 4.52 sits almost identically at about 22%. That gap between favourite and the other two outcomes suggests bookmakers expect Rennes to control proceedings, though a near two-point draw-and-away split keeps some uncertainty in play. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.21 as the standout angle, built around an implied confidence of 45% for a high-scoring contest. It is worth noting this selection carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.41%, meaning the market price is marginally tighter than the model's own estimate, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a clear-cut edge.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.21 reflects a 45% model confidence but comes with a small negative value edge, so it is not a standout value play. Rennes' strong favourite status in the result market adds some logic to an open, goal-friendly game, but this remains a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident one.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 55% confidence rating.
Rennes are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.74, which implies roughly a 57% chance of victory, well ahead of Strasbourg and the draw.
The draw is available at 4.52, implying an approximate 22% probability, almost identical to Strasbourg's implied win chance.
The model's highlighted pick, Over 3.5 goals at 2.21, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.41%, so while it reflects a 45% confidence level, it isn't flagged as a strong value opportunity based on current prices.
Rennes vs Strasbourg takes place Sun · 16:15 in the Ligue 1.
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