La Liga · Sun · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Real Sociedad's 1.76 price implies roughly 57 percent win probability, making them clear favourites over Levante.
Levante's 4.72 odds imply around 21 percent, with the draw at 4.26 implying close to 23 percent, keeping those two outcomes fairly close together.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.71 carries an implied probability near 58 percent, closely matching the model's 58 percent confidence figure.
The value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is slightly negative at -1.56 percent, meaning it does not clear the threshold for a genuine market inefficiency, and no other picks met that bar either.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 1-0 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.17 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Real Sociedad's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RS | X | 2 · LEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 4.26 | 4.72 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.71 | 4.15 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.04 | 4.32 |
| Betsson | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
La Liga action brings Real Sociedad up against Levante, and the odds leave little doubt about how the market views this one. At 1.76, Real Sociedad are priced as clear favourites, implying a win probability of roughly 57 percent, while Levante's 4.72 price suggests around 21 percent, with the draw at 4.26 sitting near 23 percent. Those numbers point to a game the market expects the hosts to control, though not overwhelmingly so. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to goals rather than the winner: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.71, translating to an implied probability of about 58 percent, broadly matching the model's own confidence reading. It's worth noting the edge on this selection is marginal and slightly negative, so this looks more like a reasonably priced goals angle than a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.71, a price that lines up closely with its own 58 percent confidence estimate rather than exposing a clear market gap. With a slightly negative edge, this is a fair-value rather than a standout selection, so stake sizing should reflect that modest conviction.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 42% confidence rating.
Real Sociedad are the clear market favourites at 1.76, which implies a win probability of roughly 57 percent, compared with Levante's 4.72 price implying around 21 percent.
The draw is priced at 4.26, which implies a probability of approximately 23 percent, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
The main recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.71, but its value edge is slightly negative at -1.56 percent, so it reflects a reasonably priced bet rather than a clear value opportunity; no other selections met the value threshold.
Real Sociedad vs Levante takes place Sun · 17:30 in the La Liga.
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