La Liga · Sat · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Espanyol are the nominal favourites at 2.53, implying about a 39.5 percent win chance, only marginally ahead of Racing de Santander at 2.84 (around 35.2 percent)
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying roughly 26.7 percent, suggesting bookmakers see a genuine chance of a share of the points
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.75 carries an implied probability of about 57 percent, closely matching the model's 56 percent confidence level
No value picks against market consensus met the threshold, with the recommended bet itself showing a slightly negative edge of -1.56 percent
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.6% | 10.37 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
| 1-0 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
| 0-1 | 5.4% | 18.59 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.79 and 1.61. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RRC | X | 2 · ESP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.72 | 2.93 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.30 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.30 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.40 | 3.62 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.62 | 2.82 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
La Liga action brings together Real Racing Club de Santander and Espanyol, with the betting market leaning only slightly toward the away side. Espanyol are priced at 2.53 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 39.5 percent, while Racing de Santander sit at 2.84 (about 35.2 percent) and the draw is available at 3.75 with Coolbet, implying close to 26.7 percent. That spread points to a fairly even contest rather than a clear-cut favourite. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle from our model centres on the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.75 with 1xBet, reflecting an implied probability near 57 percent. The model's own confidence sits at 56 percent, essentially in line with the price, so this is a measured suggestion rather than a standout value play. No individual value picks versus market consensus cleared our threshold for this fixture, underlining the balanced nature of the pricing across markets.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.75 is the closest thing to a model-backed angle here, with confidence roughly matching the implied probability but a small negative edge attached. This is a moderate-risk suggestion rather than a confident value call, and the tight match-result market offers no clear favourite to lean on.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.
Espanyol are the slight market favourites at 2.53, implying around a 39.5 percent win chance, compared to Racing de Santander's 2.84 (about 35.2 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of roughly 26.7 percent.
No value picks against market consensus cleared the threshold for this fixture; the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 even shows a slightly negative edge of -1.56 percent, so it should be viewed as a balanced rather than standout opportunity.
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Espanyol takes place Sat · 14:15 in the La Liga.
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