Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Market-implied win probability: RC Lens near 46%, Paris FC near 29%, draw near 26%, showing a clear but not dominant home-side lean.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.73 carries an implied probability of about 58%, matching the model's own confidence level closely.
The value edge on the recommended bet is -0.36%, indicating the price is essentially in line with fair value rather than offering a clear mispricing.
No individual value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus, suggesting the match-result market is being priced efficiently by bookmakers.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.22 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 9.99 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.17 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 0-1 | 6.0% | 16.69 |
| 3-1 | 5.9% | 16.84 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.81 and 1.08. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from RC Lens's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RL | X | 2 · PF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.90 | 3.58 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.10 | 3.95 | 3.40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.10 | 3.95 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.12 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.03 | 3.80 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.76 | 3.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
RC Lens host Paris FC in a Ligue 1 meeting where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best-priced odds have Lens at 2.16, which implies a win probability of roughly 46%, compared with Paris FC at 3.41 (about 29%) and the draw at 3.88 (around 26%). That gap suggests bookmakers see Lens as the stronger side on the night, though far from an overwhelming favourite given the draw and away win remain live outcomes. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 as the recommended angle, with an implied probability of about 58%. This reflects a modest, data-driven read on scoring potential in the fixture rather than a strong edge, so it should be treated as one input among several when shaping a bet.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.73 is a reasonable, data-aligned option with implied probability around 58%, but the near-zero value edge means it offers little advantage over the market price. Treat it as a moderate-risk pick rather than a standout opportunity, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 59% confidence rating.
RC Lens are favoured by the market, with best odds of 2.16 implying a win probability of roughly 46%, compared to about 29% for Paris FC.
The draw is priced at 3.88 with the best available odds, which implies a probability of around 26%.
The clearest data-backed angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, implying about 58% probability, though its value edge is slightly negative at -0.36%, meaning it is close to fairly priced rather than a strong value bet. No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold.
RC Lens vs Paris FC takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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