La Liga · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Rayo Vallecano are priced at 1.80 for the win, implying a probability of about 55.6 percent, the clearest signal in this market.
Elche CF's 4.78 price implies roughly 20.9 percent, placing them as outsiders according to the odds on offer.
The draw at 4.00 implies around 25 percent, keeping that outcome a live possibility despite the favourite tag on Rayo.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent by about 1.5 points, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than extra insight.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.81 carries a slight negative value edge of -1.31 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.95 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| 0-1 | 6.5% | 15.48 |
| 1-2 | 6.2% | 16.03 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.73 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RV | X | 2 · EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.94 | 4.78 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.77 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.81 | 4.46 |
| Tipico | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rayo Vallecano host Elche CF in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best prices make Rayo clear favourites at 1.80, which implies a win probability of roughly 55.6 percent. Elche, by contrast, sit out at 4.78, translating to an implied chance of around 20.9 percent, while the draw is priced at 4.00, or about 25 percent. Those numbers suggest bookmakers see a solid gap in quality or home advantage working in Rayo's favour, though a draw or away upset are far from dismissed outright. Away from the match-result market, our model's recommended angle is the Over 2.5 goals line at 1.81, priced with a market-implied confidence near 55 percent. The edge on that selection is slightly negative, so it is presented as a considered pick rather than a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The data points to Rayo Vallecano as the clear market favourite, with the draw and an Elche win both live alternatives at longer prices. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 1.81 reflects a near coin-flip goals market with a marginally negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence idea rather than a high-value play. Bet within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
Rayo Vallecano are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.80, which implies roughly a 55.6 percent chance of winning. Elche CF are the outsiders at 4.78.
The draw is available at 4.00, which implies an approximate 25 percent probability based on the odds given.
No selection in the data crosses the site's value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.81 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -1.31 percent, so it is offered as a considered pick rather than a confirmed value opportunity.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF takes place Sat · 12:00 in the La Liga.
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