Ligue 1 · Sun · 16:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Marseille are strongly favoured at 1.62, implying around 62% win probability, well above Le Havre's 5.54 price (about 18-19%).
The draw at 4.8 carries a fair probability estimate of 22%, giving it a value edge of 5.44% against the market price.
Le Havre's outright odds of 5.54 also show a positive edge of 3.8% versus their 19% fair probability, suggesting the market may be underpricing an away upset slightly.
The model's headline recommendation, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, has a 59% implied confidence but a negative edge of -1.19%, meaning it is not flagged as strong value despite being the featured pick.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.49 |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 9.52 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 0-1 | 7.3% | 13.66 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.61 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Marseille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MAR | X | 2 · LH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 4.57 | 5.33 |
| Betfair | 1.64 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.61 | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.61 | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.60 | 4.45 | 5.20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Marseille host Le Havre in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best odds of 1.62 on Marseille translate to an implied probability of roughly 62%, a clear statement of strength over their visitors, who are priced at 5.54 to win, implying around 18% to 19%. The draw sits at 4.8, suggesting a market-implied chance near 21%. Away from the straight match-result market, our model points toward the Over 2.5 goals line at 1.67, carrying a model-implied confidence of 59%, though the calculated edge is slightly negative at -1.19%, meaning the price does not quite match the model's fair value. Elsewhere, the data flags some value in the longer-odds outcomes, with both the draw and a Le Havre win showing positive edges against market consensus. This mix of a strong favourite, a modestly priced draw, and a goals market with marginal value gives bettors several angles to weigh before kick-off.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.67 reflects reasonable model confidence (59%) but carries a slightly negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear value play. The draw and Le Havre prices show marginally better edges, though both remain underdog outcomes against a strongly favoured Marseille side.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 59% confidence rating.
Marseille are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.62, which implies a win probability of roughly 62%, compared to Le Havre's 5.54 price.
The best available draw price is 4.8, implying a market probability of about 21%, while the model's fair value estimate puts it slightly higher at 22%.
According to the data, both the draw (5.44% edge) and a Le Havre win (3.8% edge) show positive value against market consensus, while the model's featured Over 2.5 goals tip at 1.67 has a slightly negative edge of -1.19%.
Marseille vs Le Havre takes place Sun · 16:15 in the Ligue 1.
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