La Liga · Mon · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Getafe are priced as favourites at 2.40, implying roughly a 42 percent win probability compared to Rayo Vallecano's 29 percent at 3.50.
The draw at 3.19 (about 31 percent implied) sits between the two win probabilities, underlining how competitive the market sees this fixture.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so no side is flagged as offering a clear edge over market consensus.
The Over 2.0 goals line at 1.78 carries a 51 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -8.81 percent, suggesting the price is not obviously generous relative to the model's estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 16.4% | 6.08 |
| 1-0 | 16.0% | 6.25 |
| 0-1 | 13.7% | 7.31 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 2-1 | 6.5% | 15.43 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.97 and 0.83. These six scorelines cover 74% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Getafe's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GET | X | 2 · RV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.05 | 3.05 | 2.84 |
| Betfair | 3.05 | 3.05 | 2.82 |
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.16 | 2.74 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Getafe host Rayo Vallecano in a La Liga meeting where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Getafe's best price of 2.40 implies a win probability of roughly 42 percent, while Rayo Vallecano's 3.50 corresponds to about 29 percent, and the draw at 3.19 sits close behind at just over 31 percent. That spread points to a fairly tight three-way market, with only a modest gap separating the hosts from the draw price. Away from the match-result market, the highlighted angle for this fixture is a goals-based selection: Over 2.0 goals at 1.78, which the model flags with a market-implied confidence of 51 percent. Notably, this comes with a negative value edge of -8.81 percent versus the model's own assessment, meaning the price does not clearly outstrip the estimated true probability. Bettors weighing Getafe versus Rayo Vallecano should treat all three outcomes as realistically live given the odds spread.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.0 goals at 1.78 reflects a roughly coin-flip-plus scenario for goals in this game, but the negative value edge means it is not a standout price by the model's own measure. Treat it as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong lean, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.0 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 49% confidence rating.
Getafe are the market favourites at odds of 2.40, which implies a win probability of about 42 percent, ahead of Rayo Vallecano's 29 percent at 3.50.
The draw is available at 3.19, implying roughly a 31 percent chance, which sits between the two teams' win probabilities and reflects a closely priced contest.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold. The featured angle is Over 2.0 goals at 1.78, though it carries a negative value edge of -8.81 percent against the model's estimate, so it should be seen as moderate rather than strong value.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano takes place Mon · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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