Ligue 1 · Fri · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Brest are priced as favourites at 2.31, implying roughly 43 percent win probability, ahead of Nice's 3.37 (about 30 percent) and the draw at 3.49 (about 29 percent)
The three-way market is fairly tight, with less than 15 percentage points separating the most and least likely outcome, pointing to a competitive match on paper
The recommended bet, Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, carries an implied probability of 56.8 percent but shows a value edge of -1.63 percent, meaning the market price is not clearly in bettors' favour
No value picks versus market consensus cleared the site's threshold for this fixture, indicating the match-result odds do not stand out as mispriced
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 9.04 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 0-1 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.75 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Brest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BRE | X | 2 · NIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.49 | 3.37 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.34 | 3.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brest host Nice in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best available odds of 2.31 for Brest imply a win probability of roughly 43 percent, while Nice at 3.37 sit closer to 30 percent, and the draw at 3.49 carries an implied chance of about 29 percent. That spread suggests a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with all three outcomes carrying realistic weight. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, a price that implies a 56.8 percent chance of three or more goals. The model flags this as its pick for the fixture, though it comes with a slightly negative value edge, meaning the market price is not obviously generous compared to the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.76 is the standout recommendation, backed by a market-implied probability near 57 percent, though its slightly negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market inefficiency. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong edge, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 56% confidence rating.
Brest are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.31 which implies roughly a 43 percent chance of winning, compared with Nice's 3.37 (about 30 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.49, which implies an approximate 29 percent probability of the match ending level.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold for this game. The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, which has a 56.8 percent implied probability but a slightly negative value edge of -1.63 percent.
Brest vs Nice takes place Fri · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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