La Liga · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Barcelona are priced at 1.66 (about 60% implied probability), making them clear market favourites over Real Madrid at 4.83 (around 21%).
The draw at 4.88 is priced almost identically to a Real Madrid win, implying the market sees roughly equal chances for those two outcomes.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (overround), which is standard bookmaker margin rather than a true reflection of exact chances.
The recommended bet is Under 4.0 goals at 1.64, carrying a model-stated 56% confidence and an 11.28% value edge versus the market price.
No match-result value picks are listed above the site's threshold, meaning the win/draw/win market is viewed as fairly priced by comparison.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
| 3-1 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.28 and 1.14. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Barcelona's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAR | X | 2 · RM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 5.03 | 5.08 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.57 | 4.90 | 4.95 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.56 | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.56 | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.93 | 5.38 |
| Tipico | 1.50 | 5.20 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Barcelona host Real Madrid in a La Liga Clasico that the betting market views as a fairly clear-cut affair in favour of the home side. Best prices have Barcelona at 1.66, which implies a win probability of roughly 60%, while Real Madrid drift out to 4.83 (about 21% implied) and the draw sits at a similar 4.88 (around 20% implied). That gap between favourite and the other two outcomes suggests bookmakers expect a one-sided contest rather than a tight tactical draw. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Under 4.0 goals at 1.64 as the recommended angle, with a stated 56% confidence level and an 11.28% edge over the implied price. No side value picks against the match-result consensus are flagged this time, so the goals total is the standout angle for this Clasico.
Verdict: The data points to Barcelona as clear favourites, but the recommended wager here is Under 4.0 goals at 1.64, backed by a modest 56% confidence and an 11.28% edge. It is a measured, data-based lean rather than a certainty, so staking should reflect that moderate edge and the inherent unpredictability of a Clasico.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.
Barcelona are favourites at 1.66, which implies around a 60% chance of victory, compared with Real Madrid's 4.83 (about 21% implied) and the draw at 4.88.
The draw is priced at 4.88, implying roughly a 20% probability, almost identical to Real Madrid's own implied win chance.
The model does not flag any match-result value picks above its threshold, but it does highlight Under 4.0 goals at 1.64 as a value angle, with an 11.28% edge and 56% confidence.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid takes place Sun · 20:00 in the La Liga.
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