Ligue 1 · Sun · 16:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Auxerre are priced as clear favourites at 2.23, implying roughly 45 percent win probability, well ahead of Le Mans FC's 30 percent and the draw's 27 percent
The draw at 3.7 carries a fair probability estimate of 28 percent against an implied 27 percent, producing the largest edge in this preview at 3.89 percent
Le Mans FC at 3.37 also shows modeled value, with a fair probability of 31 percent versus an implied 29.7 percent, an edge of 3.0 percent
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.8 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.0 percent, meaning the market price is marginally tighter than the model's own fair value estimate
| Bookmaker | 1 · AUX | X | 2 · LMF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.70 | 3.37 |
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.20 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.17 | 3.60 | 3.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.17 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Auxerre host Le Mans FC in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best-priced odds of 2.23 on Auxerre translate to an implied win probability of roughly 45 percent, noticeably ahead of Le Mans FC at 3.37 (about 30 percent) and the draw at 3.7 (around 27 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see Auxerre as the stronger side on paper, though a near-30 percent draw and away-win combined share keeps the contest from being one-sided in pricing terms. Away from the result market, the model's headline recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.8, implying a break-even probability close to 55 percent, which lines up with the model's own confidence reading. Interestingly, the most notable statistical edges in this preview are not on the favourite but on the draw and Le Mans FC, both flagged with positive value against the market consensus.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.8 reflects a roughly 55 percent model confidence but comes with a marginal negative edge, so it should be treated as a balanced rather than clearly favourable wager. The draw and Le Mans FC prices show stronger statistical edges, though all remain uncertain outcomes worth only measured stakes.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 55% confidence rating.
Auxerre are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.23 which implies around a 45 percent chance of winning, compared to roughly 30 percent for Le Mans FC.
The draw is available at 3.7, which implies a probability of about 27 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate of 28 percent suggests a small edge on this outcome.
The data shows modest positive edges on the draw (3.89 percent) and Le Mans FC (3.0 percent), while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -1.0 percent, so none of the options offer guaranteed value.
Auxerre vs Le Mans FC takes place Sun · 16:15 in the Ligue 1.
English 
