La Liga · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Madrid's 1.35 price implies roughly a 74% win probability, reflecting strong market confidence in the hosts
Deportivo La Coruña's 10.2 odds price them at under 10% to win, among the longer shots in this round
The draw at 5.7 implies about 17.5%, sitting well behind the home win in market expectation
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.71 carries a -1.56% value edge, indicating the price is close to fair rather than offering a clear market inefficiency
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · DLC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 6.13 | 12.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.30 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.30 | 5.75 | 11.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.27 | 5.85 | 11.75 |
| Betsson | 1.22 | 6.30 | 13.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.22 | 6.20 | 13.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlético Madrid host Deportivo La Coruña in a La Liga fixture where the market leaves little room for ambiguity. Best available odds of 1.35 on Atlético imply a win probability of roughly 74%, making them heavy favourites against a Deportivo side priced at 10.2, which the market rates at under 10% to win outright. The draw sits at 5.7, implying around 17.5%. With the result market so one-sided, our recommended angle looks beyond the three-way outcome: Over 2.5 goals at 1.71, which carries an implied probability of about 58%. That price reflects a fairly short goals line, and the model's own edge calculation comes out marginally negative at -1.56%, meaning the bookmaker's price is not clearly beating the model's assessment. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat the goals market as the more balanced angle compared to the lopsided match-result odds.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.71 reflects a roughly 58% implied chance per the model, but the slightly negative value edge means this is not a standout price advantage. It's a reasonable, moderate-risk angle given the lopsided match-result market, though bettors should size stakes conservatively and avoid treating it as a high-confidence lock.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 61% confidence rating.
Atlético Madrid are strong favourites at odds of 1.35, implying roughly a 74% win probability, compared to Deportivo's 10.2 price implying under 10%.
The best available draw price is 5.7, which implies an approximate 17.5% probability for that outcome.
The recommended pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.71, with a model-implied confidence of 58%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.56%, so it is not a clear-cut value bet.
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña takes place Sat · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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