Ligue 1 · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Monaco are priced as favourites at 2.21, implying roughly a 45% chance of victory according to Pinnacle's odds.
Lille's 3.40 price implies around a 29% win probability, keeping them a live underdog rather than a long shot.
The draw, best priced at 3.85 with 1xBet, carries a model fair probability of 27%, producing a positive value edge of about 3.62% versus the market's implied 26%.
The Over 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.75 with a model confidence of 56%, though the calculated edge sits slightly negative at -1.56%, indicating the price is close to fair value rather than clearly favourable.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.40 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 14.37 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.38 and 1.28. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from AS Monaco's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · LIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.63 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.18 | 3.54 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | 3.24 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AS Monaco host Lille in a Ligue 1 clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Monaco's best price of 2.21 translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, while Lille's 3.40 price points to about 29%, and the draw at 3.85 implies close to 26%. Those numbers suggest a competitive fixture rather than a one-sided affair, with all three outcomes carrying realistic chances according to the odds compilers. Away from the result market, our model's headline suggestion centres on goals rather than the winner, flagging Over 2.5 at 1.75 as the recommended angle, with a market-implied confidence of 56%. Separately, value analysis points to the draw as interesting relative to its market price, given a fair probability estimate of 27% against a quoted 26% implied figure. Bettors weighing this match should treat all figures as probability estimates, not predictions of outcome.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.75 reflects a goal-heavy expectation but comes with a marginally negative value edge, meaning it is close to fair-priced rather than a standout opportunity. The draw's positive edge is notable, but all selections carry genuine risk given the competitive implied probabilities across the board.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.
AS Monaco are the market favourites, priced at 2.21, which implies an approximate 45% chance of winning according to the best available odds.
The draw is best priced at 3.85 with 1xBet, implying around a 26% probability, though model estimates put the fair probability slightly higher at 27%.
According to the data, the draw shows a positive value edge of about 3.62% compared to the market price, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 shows a small negative edge of -1.56%, suggesting it is close to fairly priced.
AS Monaco vs Lille takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Ligue 1.
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