Ligue 1 · Sun · 16:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Angers are priced marginally shorter than Lorient (2.69 vs 2.85), implying win probabilities of about 37% versus 35%, a narrow gap.
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly 29% probability, keeping all three outcomes within a tight range typical of a competitive Ligue 1 fixture.
No match-result selection clears our value threshold, meaning the three-way market appears efficiently priced with no standout edge.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.19 carries a 45% model confidence and a slight negative value edge of -1.2%, indicating it is close to fair value rather than a clear overlay.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.44 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.48 |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 10.49 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Angers's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ANG | X | 2 · LOR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.69 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.62 | 3.32 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.23 | 2.81 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Angers host Lorient in a Ligue 1 clash where the betting market sees very little daylight between the two sides. Best prices put Angers at 2.69 and Lorient at 2.85, which translates to implied probabilities of roughly 37% and 35% respectively, while the draw at 3.4 carries around 29%. That spread suggests bookmakers view this as close to a pick'em fixture with a marginal home edge rather than a one-sided affair. With the match-result market offering no standout value according to our model, attention shifts to the goals market, where Over 2.5 goals at 2.19 is the highlighted selection. That price implies a bookmaker-assumed probability near 46%, and our model's own confidence sits close to that figure, meaning this is a near-fair-value pick rather than a clear market mispricing. Bettors considering Angers versus Lorient should weigh the tight outcome odds against the goals angle before deciding where any stake might go.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.19 aligns closely with the model's 45% confidence, suggesting the price is roughly fair rather than offering a clear edge. With a slightly negative value edge of -1.2%, this is a reasonable but not compelling selection, best approached with modest stakes and realistic expectations.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Le Mans FC v Toulouse | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.41 |
| 17 Oct 15:15 | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | 7.00 | 5.75 | 1.46 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Lille v Brest | 1.88 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | Troyes v RC Lens | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.87 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Angers v Marseille | 3.40 | 3.85 | 2.20 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Le Havre v Auxerre | 2.52 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Lorient v AS Monaco | 3.95 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 15:15 | Paris FC v Rennes | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | PSG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 45% confidence rating.
Angers are the narrow favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.69 compared to 2.85 for Lorient, implying win probabilities of about 37% and 35% respectively.
The draw is available at 3.4, which implies roughly a 29% chance according to the market, making it the least likely of the three outcomes but still a meaningful possibility in a closely matched fixture.
The match-result market shows no selections clearing our value threshold. The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.19, though it carries a slight negative value edge of -1.2 percent, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than a clear overlay.
Angers vs Lorient takes place Sun · 16:15 in the Ligue 1.
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