La Liga · Fri · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Alavés are strong market favourites at 1.83, implying roughly a 55 percent win probability compared to Málaga's near 21 percent at 4.82.
The draw price of 3.85 (Coolbet) implies about 26 percent, keeping it a live secondary outcome despite the home side's favouritism.
No outright value picks cleared the threshold in the match-result market, leaving the Under 2.5 goals line as the standout suggestion from the model.
The Under 2.5 goals price of 1.85 carries a 53 percent model confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.43 percent, indicating only marginal perceived mispricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.0% | 6.67 |
| 2-0 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.78 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.81 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.22 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.62 and 0.76. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ALA | X | 2 · MÁL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.73 | 4.57 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.89 | 3.45 | 4.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.89 | 3.45 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.86 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.84 | 3.64 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.36 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
La Liga pits Alavés against Málaga in a fixture where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. Alavés are priced at 1.83 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 55 percent, while Málaga's 4.82 price points to just under 21 percent. The draw, best backed at 3.85 with Coolbet, sits around 26 percent implied probability, suggesting oddsmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest rather than a pure coin flip. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with Coolbet as its recommended angle. That price corresponds to a modelled confidence of 53 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative, meaning the model does not see this as a clear mispriced opportunity, just a reasonably balanced option worth noting.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.85 reflects a roughly even-money view on a low-scoring game, with 53 percent model confidence offset by a small negative value edge. It is not a standout value play, more a balanced option; bettors should treat it as moderate risk and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Levante | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.75 |
| 17 Oct 12:00 | Espanyol v Atlético Madrid | 5.10 | 3.98 | 1.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:15 | Villarreal v Elche CF | 1.51 | 5.20 | 6.73 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v Barcelona | 6.40 | 6.00 | 1.49 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Bilbao | 3.65 | 3.51 | 2.28 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | CA Osasuna v Real Racing Club de Santander | 2.08 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:15 | Celta Vigo v Alavés | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| 18 Oct 16:30 | Málaga v Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atleti | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alavés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Málaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
Alavés are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.83 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 55 percent chance of winning, well ahead of Málaga's 4.82 price.
The best available draw price is 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies an outcome probability of about 26 percent.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold. The closest option is Under 2.5 goals at 1.85, which has 53 percent model confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.43 percent, so it is marginal rather than a strong value bet.
Alavés vs Málaga takes place Fri · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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