Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wrexham are priced at 1.8 to win, implying roughly 56 percent probability and making them the clear market favourites over Preston North End.
Preston North End's best price of 4.6 implies around 22 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap to the home side according to the market.
The draw at 3.8 implies close to 26 percent, keeping it a realistic secondary outcome given the odds spread between favourite and underdog.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 carries a 48 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a negative value edge of -7.13 percent, meaning the market price does not currently favour this angle on pure expected value.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.82 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 9.97 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 0-1 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.70 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston North End to win | 5.05 | +13.0% | 22% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Wrexham AFC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WA | X | 2 · PNE |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| GTbets | 1.79 | 3.70 | 4.59 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.86 | 5.05 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.66 | 4.02 | 4.88 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wrexham AFC host Preston North End in a Championship fixture where the betting market sets out a clear hierarchy. Best prices have Wrexham as clear favourites at 1.8, which implies a win probability of roughly 55-56 percent, while Preston drift out to 4.6, pricing them at around 22 percent. The draw sits at 3.8, implying close to 26 percent, a reasonably live outcome given the gap between the two sides. Rather than leaning on the match-result market, our model's standout angle here is the goals total, recommending Under 2.5 at 1.93 with a market-implied confidence of 48 percent. That number sits below the bet's break-even point, and the calculated value edge of -7.13 percent flags it as a selection the model likes on process grounds rather than pure mathematical value, so it is worth treating with appropriate caution rather than as a strong edge play.
Verdict: The model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 as its lead angle, but with a 48 percent implied confidence and a negative value edge of -7.13 percent, this is not presented as a strong value bet. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size any stake conservatively within a managed bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 48% confidence rating.
Wrexham AFC are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.8 which implies a win probability of around 55-56 percent, compared to Preston North End's 4.6.
The best available price for the draw is 3.8, which implies a probability of roughly 26 percent.
No value picks above the site's threshold were identified versus market consensus. The model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, though it carries a negative value edge of -7.13 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-confidence pick rather than a clear-cut value opportunity.
Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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