Championship · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Millwall are priced at 2.0 compared with Lincoln City's 3.81, a gap that puts implied win probability near 50% for the hosts versus about 26% for the visitors.
The draw at 3.65 implies roughly 27% probability, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind a home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.81 carries a 51% model confidence but a negative value edge of -6.83%, meaning the price is not clearly favourable by the model's own measure.
No value picks against the broader market consensus reached the site's threshold for this fixture, limiting the selections worth highlighting this week.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.3% | 7.01 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 2-0 | 10.9% | 9.21 |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 0-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.52 and 0.84. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MIL | X | 2 · LC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.99 | 3.51 | 3.72 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| GTbets | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.77 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.58 | 3.77 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Millwall host Lincoln City in a Championship clash where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. Best prices have Millwall at 2.0, which implies a win probability of roughly 50%, while Lincoln City's 3.81 points to around 26% and the draw at 3.65 sits near 27%. Together these figures show bookmakers see Millwall as moderate favourites without expecting a one-sided contest. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 Goals at 1.81 as the recommended angle, with a model-implied confidence of 51%. That confidence is close to a coin-flip assessment, and the quoted value edge of -6.83% suggests the price itself is not particularly generous relative to the model's own probability estimate. No side markets cleared the value threshold, so this preview focuses on what the result and goals prices actually tell us rather than any standout discrepancy.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 Goals pick at 1.81 reflects a near 50/50 model view rather than a strong statistical edge, and its negative value reading means it should be treated as a modest, not compelling, option. Bettors considering it should size stakes conservatively and view it as one plausible angle among several, not a high-confidence selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers | 1.91 | 3.66 | 4.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Millwall are the market favourites, priced at 2.0 compared with 3.81 for Lincoln City, which implies roughly a 50% chance of a home win against about 26% for the visitors.
The best available draw price is 3.65, which implies an approximate 27% probability of the match ending level.
The model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.81 with 51% implied confidence, but it carries a negative value edge of -6.83%, and no other markets cleared the site's value threshold for this fixture.
Millwall vs Lincoln City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Championship.
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