Championship · Fri · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wolves are priced shortest at 2.23, implying about 45 percent probability, versus Burnley's 31 percent at 3.25.
The draw sits at 3.6, implying roughly 28 percent, keeping all three outcomes within reasonable reach of each other.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.7 carries a model confidence of 55 percent but shows a negative value edge of -7.07 percent against the market price.
No value picks versus market consensus clear the threshold for this fixture, meaning the result market itself offers no standout discrepancy by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.8% | 10.15 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.66 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.75 |
| 0-2 | 5.7% | 17.61 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.79. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BUR | X | 2 · WW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| Matchbook | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.28 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.39 |
| GTbets | 2.97 | 3.54 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wolverhampton Wanderers head into this Championship fixture at Turf Moor as the clear market favourites against Burnley. LeoVegas prices Wolves at 2.23, which works out to an implied probability of roughly 45 percent, noticeably ahead of Burnley at 3.25 (about 31 percent) and the draw at 3.6 (around 28 percent). That gap suggests the market expects Wolves to have the upper hand, though the draw and Burnley combined still account for more than half of the implied probability, so this is far from a one-sided affair on paper. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, which implies roughly 59 percent probability of three or more goals being scored, against a stated model confidence of 55 percent.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.7 reflects a 55 percent confidence level from the model, but its -7.07 percent value edge indicates the price is not favourable relative to that estimate. This leans toward a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear-cut opportunity, so stake sizing should be approached cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers | 1.91 | 3.66 | 4.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 53% confidence rating.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.23 compared with Burnley's 3.25, implying around 45 percent probability for Wolves versus 31 percent for Burnley.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with LeoVegas, which implies an approximate 28 percent probability, keeping it competitive with both match-result outcomes.
No value picks against market consensus clear the stated threshold for the match-result market. The recommended goals-market bet, Over 2.5 at 1.7, actually carries a negative value edge of -7.07 percent despite a 55 percent model confidence, so it should be treated as a measured rather than clearly favourable selection.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers takes place Fri · 19:00 in the Championship.
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