Championship · Tomorrow · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
QPR are priced at 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw at 3.8 carries an implied probability of about 26%, not far behind QPR's own implied chance.
Derby County's 4.5 price implies only 22% but the model's fair probability estimate of 23% gives a modest 3.39% value edge on the outsider.
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries a 48% implied confidence at 1.95, though the model flags a negative value edge of -7.22%, meaning it is not a standout value play by the model's own measure.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | 5.60 | +8.6% | 19% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · QPR | X | 2 · DC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| Matchbook | 1.69 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Queens Park Rangers host Derby County in a Championship clash where the betting market leans firmly towards the home side. QPR's price of 1.85 implies a win probability of roughly 54%, making them clear favourites over Derby, whose 4.5 odds equate to just under 22%. The draw sits at 3.8, implying around 26%, keeping the result far from a foregone conclusion on paper. Away from the result market, the recommended angle from our model is Under 2.5 goals at 1.95, a price that reflects a market-implied confidence of 48% for a low-scoring contest. This fixture, then, offers two distinct angles for Championship bettors: backing the favourite outright or looking at the goals market, with Derby also flagged as a possible value outsider given the gap between market price and model-estimated probability.
Verdict: The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 as its recommended angle, but the negative value edge (-7.22%) means this is not presented as a strong value bet, more a plausible outcome given the 48% implied confidence. Treat it as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction pick, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers | 1.91 | 3.66 | 4.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
Queens Park Rangers are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of winning according to the odds given.
The draw is priced at 3.8 with the best odds from LeoVegas (SE), implying an approximate 26% probability of the match ending level.
The data suggests a modest value edge of 3.39% on Derby at 4.5, since the model's fair probability estimate of 23% is slightly higher than the market-implied 22%. It remains a low-probability outcome overall, so this should be weighed carefully.
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County takes place Tomorrow · 18:45 in the Championship.
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