Championship · Tomorrow · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
West Ham's 1.65 price implies around a 60 percent win probability, making them clear favourites over Lincoln City's 5.1 (about 20 percent).
The draw at 4.2 implies roughly 24 percent, keeping it as a live secondary outcome despite the favourite's strength.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 carries a model confidence of 60 percent but a negative value edge of about -6.9 percent, meaning it is not flagged as strong value.
No separate value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus for the match-result market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.92 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 0-2 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 15.90 |
| 2-1 | 6.1% | 16.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 1.76. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln City to win | 5.30 | +6.2% | 20% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LC | X | 2 · WHU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 5.30 | 4.20 | 1.72 |
| Matchbook | 5.30 | 4.20 | 1.72 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.10 | 4.20 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.55 | 4.18 | 1.71 |
| Coolbet | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.65 | 4.34 | 1.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lincoln City host West Ham United in the Championship with the market firmly behind the visitors. Best odds have West Ham at 1.65, implying a win probability of roughly 60 percent, while Lincoln sit out at 5.1, pricing them at under 20 percent. The draw at 4.2 suggests just under 24 percent, rounding out a fairly one-sided implied picture typical of a big gap in perceived quality between divisions or squads. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 as its recommended angle, built around a market-implied confidence of 60 percent. Note, though, that this selection carries a negative value edge against our model's own assessment, meaning the price does not clearly outstrip the estimated true probability. Bettors should weigh the strong West Ham favouritism against the goals market separately, and treat both as probability estimates rather than certainties.
Verdict: The data points to West Ham as strong favourites, with the draw and Lincoln outsider prices reflecting that gap. The flagged Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.55 has reasonable model confidence but a negative value edge, so it should be seen as a moderate-risk option rather than a standout value play. Staking discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers | 1.91 | 3.66 | 4.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 57% confidence rating.
West Ham United are clear favourites, priced at 1.65, which implies a win probability of around 60 percent compared to Lincoln City's 5.1 (about 20 percent).
The draw is available at 4.2, implying a probability of roughly 24 percent based on the odds given.
The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with 60 percent confidence, but it shows a negative value edge of about -6.9 percent, so it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity. No match-result value picks met the site's threshold either.
Lincoln City vs West Ham United takes place Tomorrow · 19:00 in the Championship.
English 
