Championship · Tomorrow · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Portsmouth are the nominal favourites at 2.5, implying about 40 percent win probability, ahead of Sheffield United's 35.7 percent and the draw's 28.6 percent.
The gap between home and away prices (2.5 vs 2.8) is narrow, suggesting the market sees little separation in overall quality or expected performance.
The draw at 3.5 (28.6 percent implied) is not far behind either side, reflecting a fixture the market views as competitive.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 carries a negative value edge of -7.27 percent against the model's 49 percent confidence, indicating the market price is not clearly in the bettor's favour.
| Bookmaker | 1 · POR | X | 2 · SU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.32 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Matchbook | 2.30 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.33 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.54 | 3.29 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.18 | 3.54 | 3.24 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Portsmouth host Sheffield United in a Championship clash where the betting market leans slightly toward the home side. Best-priced odds have Portsmouth at 2.5, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, while Sheffield United at 2.8 implies around 36 percent, and the draw at 3.5 implies about 29 percent. That spread points to a fairly even contest with a modest home edge rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle looks at goals rather than the outcome, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 with the market pricing that line at roughly 53 percent likely. The model itself carries a more conservative 49 percent confidence in that outcome, and the calculated value edge sits at -7.27 percent, meaning this is not flagged as a strong value play. Bettors should weigh this context carefully rather than treat it as a standout opportunity.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is the highlighted angle, but with the model's own 49 percent confidence falling short of the odds-implied 53 percent and a negative value edge, this should be treated as a speculative rather than a high-confidence selection. Stake modestly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers | 1.91 | 3.66 | 4.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Portsmouth are priced as marginal favourites at 2.5, implying around a 40 percent chance of victory, compared with Sheffield United's 2.8 (about 36 percent) and the draw at 3.5 (about 29 percent).
The draw is available at 3.5, which implies roughly a 29 percent probability, making it the least likely single outcome according to the market, though not by a wide margin.
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus for the result market. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.88 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.27 percent, so it should be approached cautiously rather than seen as a clear value opportunity.
Portsmouth vs Sheffield United takes place Tomorrow · 18:45 in the Championship.
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