Eredivisie · Sat · 16:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Willem II are priced shortest in the match-result market at 2.45 (about 41% implied probability), with Cambuur close behind at 2.73 (about 37%)
The draw at 3.85 implies roughly 26%, keeping the three-way market fairly balanced rather than one-sided
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries an implied probability near 62%, slightly above the model's own 59% confidence figure
No match-result selections clear the site's value threshold, so there are currently no flagged value picks on the win market
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.03 |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | 14.27 |
| 1-3 | 5.7% | 17.51 |
| 0-1 | 5.5% | 18.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.61 and 1.97. These six scorelines cover 43% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WI | X | 2 · SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.73 | 2.73 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.48 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.44 | 3.58 | 2.63 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.38 | 3.62 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| 888sport | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Willem II host SC Cambuur in an Eredivisie meeting where the best available match-result prices make Willem II the narrow market favourites at 2.45, implying a win probability of roughly 41%. Cambuur sit close behind at 2.73, which equates to about 37% implied probability, while the draw is priced at 3.85 (around 26%) at Coolbet. That spread of odds points to a tightly contested fixture with no side holding a commanding edge according to the market. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is the goals total, with Over 2.5 goals offered at 1.62 on 1xBet. That price implies roughly 62% probability of three or more goals, though the model's own confidence reading sits at 59% and shows a negative value edge of about 4%, suggesting the bookmaker price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The standout angle from the data is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, though the model's confidence of 59% and a negative value edge of roughly 4% mean this is not presented as a clear-cut edge over the bookmaker price. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong recommendation, and size any stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 59% confidence rating.
Based on the best available odds, Willem II are the narrow favourites at 2.45, implying about a 41% win probability, with Cambuur close behind at 2.73 (around 37%).
The draw is available at 3.85 at Coolbet, which implies roughly a 26% probability of the match ending level.
No match-result selection currently clears the site's value threshold. The featured recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, though it shows a slightly negative value edge of about 4% against the model's own 59% confidence estimate.
Willem II vs SC Cambuur takes place Sat · 16:45 in the Eredivisie.
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