Eredivisie · Fri · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Heerenveen are strong favourites at 1.81, implying a win probability above 55 percent, well clear of both other outcomes.
The draw (4.3) and an Excelsior win (4.23) are priced almost identically, each implying roughly 23 to 24 percent, suggesting the market sees little to separate those two outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.4 carries a market-implied confidence of 67 percent against bookmaker-implied odds of about 71 percent, producing a negative value edge of roughly -6 percent.
No value picks versus market consensus reached the site's threshold for this fixture, indicating the match-result market is not viewed as offering a clear pricing gap.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.25 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 14.75 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.71 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior to win | 5.10 | +5.0% | 21% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Heerenveen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HEE | X | 2 · EXC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 1.70 | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.04 | 4.75 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.67 | 4.05 | 4.92 |
| BetAnything | 1.67 | 4.05 | 4.92 |
| Coolbet | 1.68 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.65 | 4.30 | 4.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Heerenveen host Excelsior in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market has a clear view of the outcome. Heerenveen are priced at 1.81 with Unibet (NL), which implies a win probability of just over 55 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Excelsior drift out to 4.23 with 1xBet, translating to roughly a 24 percent chance, while the draw sits at 4.3 with Coolbet, implying a similar 23 percent likelihood. Those three numbers add up to just over 100 percent once the bookmaker margin is accounted for, confirming this is being treated as a home-leaning contest rather than a close one. Away from the match result market, the model's attention turns to goals, flagging Over 2.5 at 1.4 with William Hill as its recommended angle, though the underlying numbers on that selection are worth examining closely before backing it.
Verdict: The model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.4, but the negative value edge of about -6 percent means the stated odds look slightly shorter than the model's own assessment of the probability. It is a plausible lean given Heerenveen's favourite status, but not a standout value play, so stakes should stay modest.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44, with a 66% confidence rating.
Heerenveen are the clear market favourites at 1.81 with Unibet (NL), implying a win probability of just over 55 percent, compared to roughly 23-24 percent for the draw and for Excelsior.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Coolbet, which implies an approximate 23 percent chance of the match finishing level.
The site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.4 with William Hill, but it carries a negative value edge of about -6 percent, meaning the odds are priced slightly shorter than the model's own estimated probability, so it is not flagged as strong value.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior takes place Fri · 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
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