Eredivisie · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 1.38. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II to win | 5.60 | +8.3% | 19% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SR | X | 2 · WI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.38 | 5.10 |
| Coolbet | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.64 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.51 | 4.79 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.58 | 4.55 | 4.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II in an Eredivisie clash where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best prices put Sparta at 1.57, which implies a win probability of roughly 64 percent, while Willem II drift out to 5.57, translating to an implied chance of just under 18 percent. The draw, priced at 4.5, sits at an implied 22 percent. These numbers paint Sparta as clear favourites on home advantage and market confidence, with Willem II viewed as outsiders. Away from the match-result market, the model's own lean points toward goals rather than the winner: Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is flagged as the recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 64 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative, meaning the price doesn't clearly outstrip the model's own probability estimate. No side of the 1X2 market currently meets the site's value threshold.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44, with a 66% confidence rating.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II takes place Sat · 19:00 in the Eredivisie.
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