Eredivisie · Sun · 14:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Ajax are strongly favoured at 1.72, implying around a 58% chance of victory according to the market.
Groningen's 4.33 price and the draw's 4.40 price are closely matched, both implying roughly 23% probability.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100%, reflecting the standard bookmaker overround built into these odds.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.38 carries a negative value edge of -6.08%, meaning the market price does not currently favour this selection by the model's own metric.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 16.00 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.68. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen to win | 4.10 | +7.5% | 26% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Groningen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GRO | X | 2 · AJA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 4.10 | 4.35 | 1.81 |
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 4.33 | 1.77 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.95 | 4.35 | 1.76 |
| Coolbet | 3.80 | 4.40 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 4.38 | 1.78 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.95 | 4.15 | 1.78 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Groningen host Ajax in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Ajax are priced at 1.72 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 58%, making them clear favourites. Groningen, at 4.33 with 1xBet, are given only about a 23% chance, while the draw at 4.40 with Coolbet sits in a similar range at roughly 23%. Rather than focusing purely on the match result, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 with Nordic Bet. That price implies a probability near 72%, though the model's own confidence reading is more conservative at 68%, and the calculated value edge is actually negative. It is a pick built around expected goal volume rather than a mispriced outcome, so bettors should weigh it alongside the usual bankroll discipline.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.38 reflects a reasonably high implied probability near 72%, yet the model's confidence sits lower at 68% and the value edge is negative. This suggests a plausible but not clearly advantageous wager; stake sizing should account for that mismatch between price and model expectation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.36, with a 69% confidence rating.
Ajax are the clear favourites, priced at 1.72, which implies roughly a 58% chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is priced at 4.40 with Coolbet, implying a probability of about 23%, similar to Groningen's own win chance.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified. The featured recommendation, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38, actually carries a negative value edge of -6.08%, so it should be viewed as a model-driven selection rather than a confirmed market inefficiency.
Groningen vs Ajax takes place Sun · 14:45 in the Eredivisie.
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