Eredivisie · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
AZ Alkmaar's 1.39 price implies roughly 72 percent win probability, the clearest signal in this match-result market.
SC Cambuur's 7.8 odds put their implied chance near 13 percent, reflecting a wide gap to the favourites.
The draw at 5.5 implies about 18 percent, sitting between the two win outcomes in market pricing.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.36 carries a negative value edge of 6.04 percent, suggesting the market price is slightly ahead of the model's own confidence level.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 1xBet | 6.45 | 5.00 | 1.46 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 5.10 | 1.47 |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.25 | 5.25 | 1.43 |
| Coolbet | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.90 | 5.07 | 1.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
SC Cambuur host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. AZ are priced at 1.39 with Nordic Bet, which implies a win probability of roughly 72 percent, making them strong favourites. Cambuur's 7.8 price translates to around 13 percent, while the draw at 5.5 with Coolbet sits near 18 percent. Together these figures point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the visitors expected to control proceedings. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.36 as its recommended angle, implying a bookmaker probability near 73 percent against a model confidence of 69 percent. That gap produces a negative value edge of just over 6 percent, meaning the price does not currently look generous relative to the model's own estimate, even though the overall goals trend favours an open game given AZ's short odds to win.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals price of 1.36 is the only recommended angle here, but with a negative value edge the model is not claiming an edge over the market. It is a short-priced, moderate-confidence selection best treated as a measured, risk-aware stake rather than a standout value bet.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.14, with a 30% confidence rating.
AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites at 1.39 with Nordic Bet, implying around a 72 percent win probability, well ahead of Cambuur's 13 percent implied chance at 7.8.
The draw is available at 5.5 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of roughly 18 percent.
The main match-result market shows no value picks above the site's threshold. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 1.36 actually carries a negative value edge of about 6 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-confidence pick rather than a clear market inefficiency.
SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Eredivisie.
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