Eredivisie · Sun · 10:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Go Ahead Eagles are the shorter price at 2.34 (about 42.7 percent implied), making them the market's favourite over FC Zwolle at 2.81 (35.6 percent).
The draw at 4.2 (23.8 percent implied) keeps the match-result market relatively tight rather than heavily lopsided.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.38 carries a market-implied probability near 72.5 percent, slightly above the model's own 68 percent confidence reading.
No value picks cleared the threshold in the win/draw/win market, meaning the model found no mispriced outright result worth highlighting here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 0-2 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
| 1-3 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 0-1 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.72 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.35 and 2.14. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +3.4% | 25% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from FC Zwolle's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FZ | X | 2 · GAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 1xBet | 3.69 | 3.79 | 1.97 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.99 |
| Coolbet | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.70 | 3.73 | 1.94 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.92 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eredivisie action brings FC Zwolle and Go Ahead Eagles together, with the betting market giving a fairly clear lean towards the away side. Go Ahead Eagles are priced at 2.34, which implies a win probability of roughly 42.7 percent, while FC Zwolle sit at 2.81 (about 35.6 percent) and the draw is out to 4.2 (around 23.8 percent) at Coolbet. That spread suggests bookmakers see Go Ahead Eagles as moderate favourites without this being a one-sided mismatch, and the draw remains a live outcome given its sub-25 percent implied chance. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 with Nordic Bet as the recommended angle. That price implies around 72.5 percent, though the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 68 percent, producing a negative value edge of -6.08 percent on this selection.
Verdict: The standout angle from the data is Over 2.5 goals at 1.38, though the model's negative -6.08 percent edge signals the price is not clearly in bettors' favour despite 68 percent confidence. It is a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong-value play, and stake sizing should reflect that caution.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.44, with a 66% confidence rating.
Go Ahead Eagles are favoured by the market at 2.34, implying roughly a 42.7 percent win probability, compared with FC Zwolle's 2.81 (about 35.6 percent).
The draw is available at 4.2 with Coolbet, which implies an approximate 23.8 percent chance of that outcome.
The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 with 68 percent confidence, but it carries a negative value edge of -6.08 percent, so it is not flagged as a strong value bet by the model's own metric.
FC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles takes place Sun · 10:15 in the Eredivisie.
English 
