Eredivisie · Sat · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Feyenoord's 1.35 price implies around a 74% chance of victory, making them a heavy favourite by market consensus.
SC Telstar's 8.0 odds imply only a 12.5% win probability, reflecting the scale of the gap between the two sides according to the bookmakers.
The draw at 5.75 carries an implied probability of about 17.4%, sitting between the two win outcomes.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 3.32 carries a -6.06% value edge, meaning the model does not currently see this as a clear value play despite it being the top-rated option available.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.72 |
| 0-2 | 8.9% | 11.19 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 1-3 | 7.0% | 14.35 |
| 0-3 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 2.12. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 6.00 | +16.8% | 19% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from SC Telstar's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ST | X | 2 · FEY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 8.50 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 1xBet | 8.30 | 5.68 | 1.34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 8.59 | 5.71 | 1.32 |
| Coolbet | 8.50 | 6.00 | 1.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 8.20 | 5.70 | 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 8.20 | 5.43 | 1.32 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Feyenoord travel to SC Telstar for this Eredivisie fixture with the betting market leaving little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.35 on a Feyenoord win imply a win probability of roughly 74%, a figure that dwarfs the 12.5% implied by Telstar's 8.0 price and the 17.4% attached to the draw at 5.75. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, at least according to the bookmakers compiling these prices. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is on the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 3.32, which the model flags with a market-implied confidence of 28% and a value edge of -6.06%. That negative edge is worth noting, as it suggests the model itself does not see outright value in this selection at current prices, even though it remains the recommended pick above other options. Bettors should treat this as a modest, data-based suggestion rather than a strong signal, and weigh it alongside their own risk appetite.
Verdict: The suggested Under 2.5 goals bet at 3.32 is presented with a 28% implied confidence and a negative value edge, so it should be viewed as a cautious, data-driven option rather than a confident recommendation. Given the lack of positive-edge value picks elsewhere, bettors may want to stake conservatively or explore the match-result market, which strongly favours Feyenoord.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.64 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.32, with a 28% confidence rating.
Feyenoord are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.35, which implies a win probability of roughly 74%.
The draw is priced at 5.75 with the best available odds, implying a probability of about 17.4%.
The site's own screening found no value picks above threshold in the match-result market, and the featured Under 2.5 goals bet at 3.32 carries a -6.06% value edge, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
SC Telstar vs Feyenoord takes place Sat · 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
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