Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Werder Bremen's 1.88 price implies roughly 53% win probability, clearly ahead of Paderborn's 24.5% and the draw's 23.8%.
The draw at 4.20 is priced only slightly higher than a Paderborn win, suggesting the market sees a stalemate as a realistic secondary outcome.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.91 carries an implied probability near 52%, against a 50% model confidence, giving a small negative edge of -4.0%.
No outright value picks against market consensus were flagged for the match-result market at the given threshold.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WB | X | 2 · SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 4.26 | 4.21 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Coolbet | 1.80 | 4.28 | 4.10 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.79 | 4.29 | 4.11 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | 4.30 | 4.18 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn in the Bundesliga with the bookmakers firmly siding with the home side. Best available prices have Bremen at 1.88, which implies a win probability of roughly 53%, while Paderborn's 4.09 price points to just under 24.5% and the draw at 4.20 sits close behind at roughly 23.8%. That spread signals a clear but not overwhelming favourite rather than a one-sided mismatch. Away from the match-result market, our model flags a goals-based angle: Over 3.0 total goals at 1.91, a price that implies around 52% probability against the model's own 50% confidence read, leaving a modest -4.0% value edge. It is not presented as a standout value play, but it fits a fixture where the market already expects the home side to control proceedings and goals to flow at a reasonable rate.
Verdict: The data points to Werder Bremen as the clear market favourite, with the draw and a Paderborn upset priced closely together. The suggested Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.91 is not a high-confidence value play given its -4.0% edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong lean.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 52% confidence rating.
Werder Bremen are the clear market favourite, priced at 1.88, which implies roughly a 53% chance of victory compared with about 24.5% for Paderborn.
The draw is available at 4.20, implying a probability of close to 23.8 percent, only slightly below Paderborn's own win chance.
No match-result value picks were flagged against market consensus. The only recommended angle is Over 3.0 goals at 1.91, which shows a small negative edge of -4.0 percent, so it is not a strong value bet.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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