Bundesliga · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Hoffenheim are priced at 1.91, implying roughly a 52% chance of victory, making them the clear market favourite over Gladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach's odds of 3.79 imply around a 26% win probability, notably behind the away side
The draw at 4.41 implies close to 23%, the least likely single outcome according to the market
The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.07 carries a model-implied confidence of 48% but shows a negative value edge of about -1.48%, meaning the price is not favourable relative to the model's estimate
| Bookmaker | 1 · BM | X | 2 · TH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.33 | 4.21 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.18 |
| Matchbook | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.16 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.20 | 4.25 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 4.18 | 2.13 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.16 | 4.20 | 2.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action sees Borussia Monchengladbach host TSG Hoffenheim, with the visitors installed as clear favourites by the market. Hoffenheim's best price of 1.91 implies a win probability of roughly 52%, while Gladbach's 3.79 corresponds to about 26%, and the draw at 4.41 sits near 23%. That gap points to a fairly one-sided market view, though the combined implied probabilities (just over 101%) reflect the standard bookmaker margin rather than certainty. Away from the result market, our model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.07 as the featured angle, translating to an implied probability around 48%. This is presented as the recommended selection for this fixture, though bettors should note it carries a slightly negative value edge against the model's own assessment, meaning the price does not fully compensate for the estimated risk.
Verdict: Hoffenheim look the stronger side on price alone, but the recommended Over 3.5 goals bet is more speculative than a clear value play, given its slightly negative edge against the model's own probability estimate. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
TSG Hoffenheim are favoured by the market, priced at 1.91, which implies a win probability of roughly 52%, compared with about 26% for Gladbach.
The best available price on the draw is 4.41, which implies an approximate 23% chance of the match being drawn.
The model's featured pick, Over 3.5 goals at 2.07, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of about -1.48%, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity, and no other selections met the value threshold.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Bundesliga.
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