Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Stuttgart's 1.88 price implies roughly a 53% win probability, the strongest signal in this market
Hamburger SV's 4.3 odds imply only about 23%, reflecting their underdog status according to the market
The draw is priced at 4.2 (William Hill), suggesting close to a 24% chance of a split points outcome
The recommended Under 3.5 Goals bet at 1.92 carries a -1.56% value edge, meaning the model sees it as fair-to-slightly-unfavourable rather than a clear value play
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV to win | 4.33 | +3.1% | 24% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HS | X | 2 · VS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.08 | 4.08 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.86 |
| Matchbook | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
| Coolbet | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.87 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.76 |
| Pinnacle | 4.33 | 4.06 | 1.79 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market has a clear view of the likely outcome. Stuttgart are priced at 1.88 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 53%, making them the clear favourites on paper. Hamburger SV, at 4.3, are given only about a 23% chance, while William Hill's draw price of 4.2 suggests a similar 24% likelihood of a stalemate. Together these numbers point to a match the market expects Stuttgart to control, though nothing is settled before kickoff. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 Goals at 1.92, a price that implies just over 52% probability of three or fewer goals, slightly ahead of the model's own 51% confidence reading, resulting in a small negative edge.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 Goals selection at 1.92 is the model's pick, but its -1.56% edge shows it is not a standout value bet, just a reasonably balanced option. With Stuttgart favoured but no strong value picks flagged elsewhere, this looks like a moderate-confidence angle best approached with sensible stake sizing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.96, with a 51% confidence rating.
VfB Stuttgart are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.88, implying roughly a 53% win probability, compared to Hamburger SV's 4.3 price and about 23% implied chance.
William Hill offer the draw at 4.2, which implies close to a 24% probability of the match ending level.
No standout value picks were identified against the market consensus. The model's suggested bet is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.92, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.56%, so it should be treated as a moderate, not strong, opportunity.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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