Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Elversberg are priced shorter (2.43) than Augsburg (2.87), implying the hosts are the marginal favourites at roughly 41% versus 35%.
The draw at 3.90 is the least likely outcome by market pricing, implied at around 26%.
The overround across all three prices suggests a fairly tightly matched contest rather than a heavy favourite scenario.
The recommended Under 3.25 goals bet at 1.93 carries a -4.26% value edge, indicating the model does not see clear value here despite it being the top-rated selection available.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +4.6% | 25% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ELV | X | 2 · AUG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.92 | 2.71 |
| Matchbook | 2.52 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.52 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.77 | 2.69 |
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action brings Elversberg and Augsburg together, with the betting market leaning toward the hosts. 1xBet prices Elversberg at 2.43, which implies a win probability of roughly 41%, while Augsburg sits at 2.87 (about 35% implied) and the draw is the outsider at 3.90 (around 26%). That gap is not enormous, so this reads as a mildly favoured home side rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Under 3.25 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle as its recommended angle, built on roughly 50% market-implied confidence. Notably, this pick carries a negative value edge of -4.26%, meaning the market price does not clearly favour backing it, so it should be treated as a measured suggestion rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The market makes Elversberg narrow favourites over Augsburg, with the draw least likely. The model's headline pick, Under 3.25 goals at 1.93, comes with a negative value edge, so it should be viewed as a reasonable but unproven angle rather than a confident recommendation. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 51% confidence rating.
Elversberg are the marginal favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.43 compared to Augsburg's 2.87, implying win probabilities of roughly 41% and 35% respectively.
The draw is offered at 3.90 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 26%, making it the least likely single outcome among the three.
No value picks were identified above the threshold in the match-result market. The model's featured suggestion, Under 3.25 goals at 1.93, actually shows a negative value edge of -4.26%, so it is not a strong value play by the model's own measure.
Elversberg vs Augsburg takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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