Bundesliga · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Eintracht Frankfurt are priced at 2.01, implying roughly a 50% chance of victory and establishing them as clear favourites over Köln.
1. FC Köln's 3.58 price implies around a 28% win probability, while the draw at 4.2 implies close to 24%.
The three match-result prices sum to just over 101%, indicating a relatively low bookmaker margin on this market.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.09 carries a model confidence of about 47% against a slight negative value edge of -1.03%, meaning it is priced close to fair rather than offering a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 16.29 |
| 2-0 | 5.5% | 18.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.24 and 1.57. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Eintracht Frankfurt's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EF | X | 2 · 1FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.04 | 4.20 | 3.55 |
| Matchbook | 2.04 | 4.20 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 4.30 | 3.52 |
| Coolbet | 2.00 | 4.15 | 3.45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 4.21 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eintracht Frankfurt host 1. FC Köln in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Frankfurt's best price of 2.01 implies a win probability of roughly 50%, making them the clear favourite over Köln, whose 3.58 price points to an implied chance of about 28%. The draw, priced at 4.2, sits at an implied 24%, rounding out a market that is fairly tightly packed around the head-to-head outcome once you strip out the bookmaker margin. Rather than backing a match-result selection, our model's recommended angle for this game is the goals market: Over 3.5 goals at 2.09, which corresponds to an implied probability of around 48%. That price sits close to what the model itself calculates as fair, so this is not presented as a standout value opportunity but as a plausible, evenly-priced option for those interested in a goals-based approach to this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.09 reflects a roughly coin-flip proposition with a marginally negative edge according to the model, so it should be treated as a fair-value option rather than a confident value bet. Bettors considering it should size stakes cautiously and view it as one reasonable angle among several for this fixture.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 49% confidence rating.
Eintracht Frankfurt are the market favourites, with a best price of 2.01 implying roughly a 50% chance of winning, compared to Köln's 3.58 price and about 28% implied probability.
The draw is priced at 4.2, which implies an approximate 24% probability according to the market.
No selection above the site's value threshold was identified in the match-result market. The recommended play is Over 3.5 goals at 2.09, though this carries a slightly negative edge of about -1.03% rather than a clear value advantage.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Bundesliga.
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