Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Mainz 05 are priced as favourites at 2.33, implying a win probability of about 42.9 percent, the highest of the three match-result outcomes.
Schalke 04's home odds of 3.17 imply roughly 31.6 percent, positioning the hosts as clear underdogs according to the market.
The draw at 3.69 is the least backed outcome by the odds, with an implied probability near 27.1 percent.
The Under 3.0 goals selection at 1.88 shows 51 percent model confidence but a -4.04 percent value edge, meaning the market price does not clearly favour this bet over consensus.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FS0 | X | 2 · FM0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.15 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.67 | 2.34 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.05 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Coolbet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.61 | 2.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Schalke 04 host Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Best available prices have Mainz at 2.33, which implies a win probability of roughly 42.9 percent, making them the favourites on paper. Schalke's home odds of 3.17 translate to around 31.6 percent, while the draw at 3.69 sits at the bottom of the pile with an implied chance near 27.1 percent. None of the three match-result outcomes stand out as a clear market inefficiency. Instead, the model's recommended angle looks past the result market entirely, pointing to Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 on Pinnacle, a pick carrying 51 percent confidence but a negative value edge of -4.04 percent versus market consensus, so it should be treated as a modest lean rather than a strong signal.
Verdict: The market makes Mainz modest favourites over Schalke, with the draw least likely of the three outcomes. Rather than the result market, the model highlights Under 3.0 goals at 1.88, though its negative edge of -4.04 percent suggests only a slight lean, not a confident value play. Stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 47% confidence rating.
According to the odds, Mainz 05 are the favourites at 2.33, which implies a win probability of about 42.9 percent, ahead of Schalke's 31.6 percent implied chance at 3.17.
The draw is priced at 3.69, giving it an implied probability of roughly 27.1 percent, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The model flags Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 with 51 percent confidence, but this carries a negative value edge of -4.04 percent, so it should not be viewed as a strong value pick; no other selections cleared the value threshold.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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