Bundesliga · Sun · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Leverkusen's 1.69 price implies close to a 59 percent win probability, the strongest single signal in the match odds.
Freiburg's 4.82 price implies only about 21 percent, yet the model's fair probability of 22 percent creates a 4.15 percent edge, flagging it as a value angle.
The draw is priced at 4.61, implying roughly 22 percent, sitting close to Freiburg's own implied win chance.
The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.95 carries 49 percent implied confidence but a -4.28 percent edge, pointing to a near fair-priced market rather than a clear advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.31 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 16.23 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.13 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bayer Leverkusen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BL | X | 2 · SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.73 | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| Matchbook | 1.78 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.77 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Coolbet | 1.73 | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 4.34 | 4.24 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. The best available price on Leverkusen, 1.69, implies around a 59 percent chance of victory, while Freiburg's 4.82 price reflects a much smaller implied probability of roughly 21 percent. The draw sits at 4.61, translating to about 22 percent likelihood according to bookmaker odds. Away from the outright result, the recommended angle centres on total goals: Over 3.25 goals is priced at 1.95 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 49 percent and a modest negative value edge of -4.28 percent, suggesting that line is close to fairly priced rather than a clear opportunity. Elsewhere, Freiburg's outright price of 4.82 shows a positive edge of 4.15 percent against the model's fair probability estimate of 22 percent, making it the more notable value angle in this Bundesliga clash for bettors weighing risk against reward.
Verdict: Market pricing points firmly to Leverkusen as favourites, but the clearest statistical value lies with Freiburg's outright price rather than the goals market. The recommended Over 3.25 goals selection is close to fairly priced with a slight negative edge, making it a moderate-risk option rather than a standout pick. Sensible bankroll management is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.33 | 4.25 | 2.18 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites according to the market, priced at 1.69 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 59 percent chance of winning.
The draw is available at 4.61 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 22 percent probability based on current market pricing.
Yes, based on the data Freiburg's 4.82 price offers a 4.15 percent edge against the model's fair 22 percent probability estimate, making it the more interesting value angle, while the recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.95 shows a smaller -4.28 percent edge.
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg takes place Sun · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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