Bundesliga · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Stuttgart are priced at 1.43, implying close to a 70 percent win probability, making them clear market favourites over Gladbach's 14 percent.
The draw at 5.8 implies about 17 percent, while the model's fair probability estimate of 18 percent produces a modest 3.27 percent value edge on that outcome.
The recommended Over 3.75 goals bet at 1.84 carries 52 percent model confidence but shows a negative value edge of 4.86 percent, meaning the price does not fully match the model's fair assessment.
The wide spread between Stuttgart's and Gladbach's odds (1.43 versus 6.98) signals a lopsided market expectation rather than a tightly contested fixture.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VS | X | 2 · BM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.80 | 6.98 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.41 | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.39 | 5.65 | 6.80 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.38 | 5.75 | 6.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 5.46 | 6.12 |
| Tipico | 1.37 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Stuttgart host Borussia Monchengladbach in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available prices make VfB Stuttgart heavy favourites at 1.43, which implies a win probability close to 70 percent, while Gladbach's 6.98 price points to roughly 14 percent, and the draw sits at 5.8, implying around 17 percent. That gap between home and away prices is substantial and reflects a clear market view on this one. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.75 goals at 1.84 as its recommended angle, carrying a 52 percent implied confidence level, though the calculated edge on that selection is actually negative. The draw, by contrast, shows a small positive value edge against the market consensus, worth noting for bettors who like to shop for pockets of value rather than just following the favourite.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Stuttgart, and the highlighted Over 3.75 goals pick offers a plausible high-scoring angle at 1.84, though its negative edge means it is not a clear value bet by the model's own numbers. The draw's small positive edge is worth a look for value-focused bettors, but stakes should stay modest given the uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.75 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
VfB Stuttgart are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.43, which implies a win probability of roughly 70 percent compared to about 14 percent for Gladbach.
The best available draw price is 5.8, implying an outcome probability of around 17 percent, close to the model's 18 percent fair-value estimate.
The draw shows a small positive value edge of 3.27 percent versus the market consensus, while the model's recommended Over 3.75 goals bet at 1.84 actually carries a negative edge of 4.86 percent despite 52 percent confidence.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Bundesliga.
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