Allsvenskan · Sun · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Västerås SK are market favourites at 2.43, an implied probability of about 41 percent, but not by a dominant margin.
Mjällby AIF's 3.10 price implies roughly 32 percent, keeping them live outsiders rather than rank underdogs.
The draw at 3.75 implies about 27 percent, yet the model's fair probability of 28 percent gives it a positive edge of 3.39 percent versus market consensus.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 carries a model confidence of 55 percent but shows a negative edge of 4.74 percent, meaning it is not flagged as strong value despite being the headline pick.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.34 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.71 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.51. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjällby AIF to win | 3.20 | +4.1% | 33% | 60 |
| Draw (X) | 3.75 | +3.6% | 28% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VS | X | 2 · MA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Coolbet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.51 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.47 | 2.89 |
| GTbets | 2.34 | 3.51 | 2.87 |
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.48 | 2.84 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Allsvenskan action brings together Västerås SK and Mjällby AIF, with the betting market tilting toward the hosts without making them overwhelming favourites. Västerås SK's best price of 2.43 translates to an implied probability of roughly 41 percent, while Mjällby AIF's 3.10 price points to about 32 percent. The draw, priced at 3.75, implies around 27 percent, leaving a fairly open market across all three outcomes. Away from the result market, the recommended angle from our model centres on goals rather than the winner, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with a model-implied confidence of 55 percent. That selection carries a modest negative edge against the market price, so it sits alongside a draw price that our model actually rates as the more interesting value angle in this Allsvenskan clash.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.73 reflects a roughly coin-flip-plus view on goals but comes with a slightly negative edge per our model, so it should be treated as moderate-risk rather than a standout value play. The draw's positive edge is worth noting as an alternative angle for bettors comparing options, with bankroll discipline advised either way.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Västerås SK are priced as favourites at 2.43, which implies a probability of roughly 41 percent, ahead of Mjällby AIF at 3.10 (about 32 percent implied).
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying around 27 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate of 28 percent gives it a small positive edge of 3.39 percent.
According to the data, the draw shows the only clearly positive edge (3.39 percent) against market consensus, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 actually carries a slight negative edge of 4.74 percent, so neither should be viewed as a sure thing.
Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF takes place Sun · 12:00 in the Allsvenskan.
English