Allsvenskan · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
GAIS are priced at 1.78, implying roughly a 56 percent chance of victory according to the market
The draw is priced at 4.09, translating to an implied probability of about 24 percent, lower than either side's individual implied win chance in GAIS's case
Örgryte IS at 4.7 imply only about 21 percent, yet the model's fair probability estimate of 23 percent produces an 8.6 percent edge, marking them as a value pick
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries a 58 percent model confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.29 percent, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than clearly advantageous
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.49 |
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 0-2 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 14.27 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.98 and 1.68. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS to win | 5.60 | +22.2% | 22% | 68 |
| Draw (X) | 4.30 | +5.1% | 24% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ÖI | X | 2 · GAI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.62 |
| Coolbet | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.66 |
| Betsson | 4.69 | 4.07 | 1.69 |
| GTbets | 4.36 | 4.04 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 4.64 | 4.12 | 1.65 |
| 1xBet | 4.32 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Örgryte IS host GAIS in an Allsvenskan clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. GAIS are priced at 1.78, which implies a win probability of roughly 56 percent, making them clear favourites heading into kick-off. Örgryte, at 4.7, are given only about a 21 percent chance by the market, while the draw at 4.09 sits close behind at roughly 24 percent implied probability. Beyond the match-result market, the model's headline recommendation centres on goals rather than outcome, backing Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, a price that reflects a market-implied confidence of 58 percent. Interestingly, the data also flags Örgryte's win price as holding some value relative to the model's own probability estimate, offering a contrasting angle for bettors weighing up the Allsvenghan fixture beyond the straightforward favourite tag.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.62 reflects a moderately confident model view on goal output, but its negative edge means it is not flagged as strong value, just a reasonably likely outcome. Bettors should treat it as a measured option rather than a standout opportunity, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 59% confidence rating.
GAIS are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.78, which implies roughly a 56 percent chance of winning this Allsvenskan fixture.
The draw is available at 4.09, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 24 percent.
According to the data, Örgryte IS at 4.7 shows an 8.6 percent edge versus the model's fair probability estimate of 23 percent, making it the flagged value selection, while the Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.62 carries a slightly negative edge of -5.29 percent.
Örgryte IS vs GAIS takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Allsvenskan.
English