Allsvenskan · Fri · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Djurgardens IF are strongly favoured at 1.5, implying about 67 percent win probability according to the market.
Brommapojkarna's 6.75 price implies only around 15 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides in the odds.
The draw at 4.8 implies roughly 21 percent, a typical price when one side is heavily backed.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet carries a 58 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a negative value edge of about -6.17 percent, meaning the market price is not clearly in bettors' favour.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.18 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 0-2 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 1-3 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
| 2-1 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 1.90. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.80 | +8.9% | 23% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IB | X | 2 · DI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| Coolbet | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| Betsson | 5.90 | 4.57 | 1.51 |
| GTbets | 5.61 | 4.67 | 1.50 |
| Pinnacle | 5.72 | 4.60 | 1.49 |
| 1xBet | 5.87 | 4.65 | 1.46 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Djurgardens IF head to Brommaplan as clear favourites against IF Brommapojkarna in this Allsvenskan meeting, with the market pricing them at 1.5 for the win, which works out to an implied probability of roughly 67 percent. Brommapojkarna, by contrast, are priced at 6.75, implying just under 15 percent, while the draw sits at 4.8, around 21 percent. Those numbers paint a fixture where Djurgardens are expected to control proceedings comfortably, though football odds always leave room for upsets. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.62, which corresponds to a modeled confidence of 58 percent. That said, the calculated value edge on this selection is slightly negative, so it should be treated as a measured suggestion rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 3.5 goals at 1.62 with 58 percent confidence, a reasonably likely outcome given typical scorelines in heavily favoured matchups. However, the negative value edge suggests this is not an exploitable mispricing, so it should be approached as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 58% confidence rating.
Djurgardens IF are the clear favourites, priced at 1.5, which implies roughly a 67 percent chance of winning according to the betting market.
The draw is priced at 4.8, which translates to an implied probability of about 21 percent.
No standout value picks were identified against the market consensus. The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.62 has 58 percent modeled confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of around -6.17 percent.
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF takes place Fri · 17:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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