Allsvenskan · Sat · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result prices are closely bunched: AIK 2.55, IFK Goteborg 2.70, Draw 3.80, implying probabilities of about 39%, 37% and 26%.
The narrow gap between the two win prices suggests the market views this as close to a coin-flip fixture rather than a one-sided clash.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.33 shows a value edge of -4.44%, meaning the model's confidence (41%) is marginally below what the price implies, so it is not a strong statistical edge.
No value picks versus the market consensus cleared the threshold, indicating the win-draw-win market offers nothing the model rates as mispriced.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.29 |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 10.50 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 1-2 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
| 0-1 | 6.2% | 16.21 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.77 and 1.15. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AIK | X | 2 · IG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.55 |
| Coolbet | 2.67 | 3.70 | 2.52 |
| Betsson | 2.57 | 3.64 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.76 | 2.47 |
| GTbets | 2.52 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AIK host IFK Goteborg in an Allsvenskan meeting where the betting market sees little daylight between the two sides. Best-priced odds have AIK at 2.55 and IFK Goteborg at 2.70, which translate to implied probabilities of roughly 39% and 37% respectively, while the draw at 3.80 carries an implied chance of about 26%. That spread points to a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.33 as its recommended angle, suggesting the game could be a tighter, lower-scoring affair than the goal markets typically assume. The model's own confidence sits at 41%, slightly below the price's implied probability, which tempers enthusiasm for the pick even as it remains the standout recommendation from the available data.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.33 is the only concrete lean from the data, but with a negative value edge of -4.44% it should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong edge. Bettors considering it should size stakes conservatively given the modest statistical support.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.33, with a 41% confidence rating.
AIK are the narrow favourite at 2.55, implying about 39% probability, just ahead of IFK Goteborg at 2.70 (around 37%).
The draw is priced at 3.80, which implies roughly a 26% chance according to the market.
No standard value picks cleared the threshold in the win-draw-win market; the only recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 2.33, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.44%.
AIK vs IFK Goteborg takes place Sat · 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.
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