Allsvenskan · Sun · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sirius are priced at 2.07 (about 48% implied probability), the clearest favourite tag in the three-way market.
Elfsborg's 3.55 and the draw's 3.70 are close together, implying similar away-win and draw probabilities of roughly 28% and 27%.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (around 103.5%), reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these odds.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.06 carries a market-implied confidence of 46% but shows a negative value edge of -6.26%, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.54 |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.73 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.16 |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.70 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 1.34. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg to win | 3.95 | +8.8% | 28% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IS | X | 2 · IE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 2.00 | 3.67 | 3.59 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.64 | 3.57 |
| GTbets | 1.97 | 3.69 | 3.54 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.62 | 3.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
IK Sirius host IF Elfsborg in an Allsvenskan fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds have Sirius at 2.07, which implies a win probability of roughly 48%, noticeably higher than Elfsborg's 3.55 (about 28%) or the draw at 3.70 (around 27%). That gap suggests bookmakers see Sirius as a solid, though not overwhelming, favourite on home turf. Away from the straight match result, our model points elsewhere for this one, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.06, a line priced around a 46% implied chance of fewer than three goals in the match. With no outright value picks clearing our threshold on the 1X2 market, the goals line is where the most actionable angle lies, though bettors should weigh the modest negative value edge before committing stakes.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.06 is the model's lead suggestion for this fixture, with implied confidence near 46%. The negative value edge means it is not a standout price advantage, so this leans toward a moderate-risk, measured stake rather than a high-conviction play. Bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 55% confidence rating.
IK Sirius are the market favourites at odds of 2.07, implying roughly a 48% chance of victory, compared with about 28% for Elfsborg and 27% for the draw.
The best available draw price is 3.70, which implies an approximate 27% probability of the match ending level.
No 1X2 selection cleared the value threshold. The model's main suggestion is Under 2.5 goals at 2.06, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -6.26%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than high-value play.
IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg takes place Sun · 12:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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