Allsvenskan · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Malmo FF are priced shortest at 2.35, implying about 42.5% win probability, ahead of Hacken's 2.95 (about 33.9%) and the draw at 3.85 (about 26%).
The gap between home and away prices is moderate, pointing to a home edge but not a dominant one.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.35 carries a market-implied confidence of 40%, below the price's own implied probability.
This Under 2.5 pick shows a negative value edge of -6.24%, meaning it does not clear the model's value threshold despite being the headline recommendation.
No value picks versus market consensus cleared the threshold for this fixture, with the result market showing a fairly orthodox favourite-draw-underdog price structure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 9.99 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.63 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.59 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.88 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MF | X | 2 · BH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.55 |
| Coolbet | 2.66 | 3.75 | 2.51 |
| Betsson | 2.53 | 3.51 | 2.68 |
| GTbets | 2.42 | 3.74 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.57 | 2.62 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60 | 3.65 | 2.43 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Malmo FF host BK Hacken in an Allsvenskan fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best available prices have Malmo FF at 2.35, Hacken at 2.95, and the draw at 3.85, which translates to implied probabilities of roughly 42.5% for a home win, 34% for an away win, and 26% for a draw. That spread suggests a competitive match rather than a mismatch. Away from the result market, the model's attention turns to goal totals, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 2.35 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 40%. Notably, this selection shows a negative value edge of -6.24% against the model's own assessment, meaning the odds do not currently exceed what the model considers fair value. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat the pick as a straightforward market read rather than a flagged value opportunity.
Verdict: The market gives Malmo FF a moderate edge at home, but the result market shows no clear value selection. The flagged Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.35 comes with a negative value edge of -6.24%, so it should be viewed as a plausible outcome rather than a statistically favoured one. Stake with caution and manage bankroll sensibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 40% confidence rating.
Malmo FF are the market favourites at 2.35, implying roughly a 42.5% chance of victory, compared with 2.95 for BK Hacken and 3.85 for the draw.
The draw is available at 3.85, which implies an approximate 26% probability according to the quoted odds.
The model's recommended selection, Under 2.5 goals at 2.35, actually shows a negative value edge of -6.24%, and no result-market selections cleared the value threshold, so no strong value opportunity is indicated by the data.
Malmo FF vs BK Hacken takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Allsvenskan.
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