Allsvenskan · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Degerfors are priced at 2.55 (implied 39.2%) against Kalmar at 2.65 (implied 37.7%), a very narrow gap pointing to a closely matched fixture.
The draw at 3.40 implies around 29.4% probability, the lowest of the three outcomes but still substantial.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a model confidence of 46%, below the 49.5% implied by the odds, resulting in a negative value edge of -6.52%.
No value picks against the market consensus cleared the site's threshold for this fixture, leaving the goals market as the only flagged angle.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.58 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.22 and 1.18. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DI | X | 2 · KF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Coolbet | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.64 |
| Betsson | 2.82 | 3.31 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.23 | 2.55 |
| GTbets | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.48 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Degerfors IF host Kalmar FF in an Allsvenskan fixture where the 1X2 market is unusually tight. The best odds have Degerfors at 2.55 and Kalmar at 2.65, which translate to implied probabilities of roughly 39% and 38% respectively - a gap of barely a percentage point. The draw is priced at 3.40, implying about 29%, making it the least likely outcome on paper but still a meaningful share of the market. Away from the match-result market, the site's recommended angle for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02. That price implies a probability near 49.5%, while the model's own confidence sits at 46%, producing a negative value edge of -6.52%. In practical terms, the numbers suggest a competitive fixture with no clear market favourite, and a goals market that does not currently present a clear statistical edge.
Verdict: The 1X2 market shows no clear favourite between Degerfors, Kalmar and the draw, all priced within a tight range. The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.02 is the only flagged angle, but its model confidence trails the odds-implied probability, giving a negative value edge. This points to a moderate-risk bet best approached with careful staking.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgardens IF | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.51 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | AIK v IFK Goteborg | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.57 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | IK Sirius v IF Elfsborg | 2.05 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 18 Oct 12:00 | Västerås SK v Mjällby AIF | 2.38 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF | 11.60 | 6.67 | 1.26 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Örgryte IS v GAIS | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Malmo FF v BK Hacken | 2.70 | 3.85 | 2.68 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.13, with a 46% confidence rating.
Degerfors are the marginal market favourite at odds of 2.55, implying about 39.2% probability, compared to Kalmar at 2.65 (37.7%). The gap is narrow, so neither side is strongly favoured.
The draw is available at 3.40, which implies roughly 29.4% probability, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the market.
No 1X2 value picks met the site's threshold for this fixture. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 actually shows a negative value edge of -6.52%, meaning even this pick does not represent clear statistical value per the model.
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Allsvenskan.
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