Eliteserien · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result prices are tightly bunched: Vålerenga 2.49, Brann 2.58, draw 3.87, implying probabilities of about 40%, 39% and 26%.
The gap between the two match-result favourites is minimal, suggesting the bookmakers see this as close to a coin-flip game.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.96 carries a 51% implied probability against a 47% model confidence, producing a negative value edge of -7.55%.
No separate value picks cleared the site's threshold against market consensus, indicating no standout mispricing was identified elsewhere in this market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 2-2 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
| 2-1 | 7.2% | 13.83 |
| 1-3 | 5.3% | 18.83 |
| 2-3 | 4.9% | 20.49 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.84 and 2.01. These six scorelines cover 40% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VÅL | X | 2 · SB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.83 | 2.57 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.65 | 2.58 |
| GTbets | 2.46 | 3.82 | 2.55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.48 | 3.65 | 2.54 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vålerenga host SK Brann in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market sees almost nothing between the two sides. Vålerenga are priced at 2.49 with Brann close behind at 2.58, translating to implied win probabilities of roughly 40% and 39% respectively, while the draw at 3.87 implies around 26%. That near-even split across all three outcomes points to a genuinely open contest rather than a clear favourite. Away from the win market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 1.96 as its recommended angle, with a market-implied confidence of 47%. It's worth noting the value edge on that selection comes out negative at -7.55%, meaning the numbers don't clearly support it as a value bet in the traditional sense, just the closest match to the model's criteria this week.
Verdict: The win market offers no strong lean given how closely Vålerenga and Brann are priced. The Over 3.5 goals selection at 1.96 is the model's top flagged bet, but its negative value edge means it isn't a clear-cut value play, more a speculative goals angle. Stake modestly and treat it as higher-risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 47% confidence rating.
Vålerenga are the narrow favourites at 2.49, just ahead of Brann at 2.58, which implies win probabilities of about 40% and 39% respectively, making this close to an even match on paper.
The draw is priced at 3.87, which implies roughly a 26% chance according to the market, the least likely of the three match-result outcomes.
No standout value picks cleared the site's threshold in the win market. The model's recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.96 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.55%, so it should be viewed as speculative rather than a confirmed value opportunity.
Vålerenga vs SK Brann takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Eliteserien.
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