English ⚽ Eliteserien 🕒 Sun · 12:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.62
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 64%
AI Value edge 3.5% · best price at Tipico
Bet at Tipico Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Match-result prices are tightly bunched (2.52 vs 2.61), implying Rosenborg and Sarpsborg FK are rated almost equally by the market at around 40% and 38% respectively.
02
The draw at 3.85 implies roughly 26% probability, but the model's fair estimate of 27% suggests a small 3.14% value edge on that outcome.
03
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet carries a model confidence of 64% and a value edge of 3.03%, the strongest signal in the available data.
04
Bookmaker overround across the three-way market is modest, consistent with a fixture the market does not strongly favour either side to win.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 55%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.52 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.71 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 14.86 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
SF Sarpsborg FK WLDDD
11 Oct 26 @ Aalesund 4-2
18 Sept 26 vs KFUM 1-3
13 Sept 26 @ Fredrikstad FK 1-1
6 Sept 26 vs Vålerenga 2-2
30 Aug 26 @ Tromso 0-0
ROS Rosenborg DWWWL
10 Oct 26 vs Sandefjord 1-1
19 Sept 26 @ Kristiansund BK 3-1
12 Sept 26 vs Tromso 5-3
5 Sept 26 vs HamKam 4-0
30 Aug 26 @ Bodø/Glimt 2-4
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · SF | X | 2 · ROS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.55 | 3.95 | 2.53 |
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.73 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.93 | 2.49 |
| Betsson | 2.58 | 3.65 | 2.58 |
| GTbets | 2.58 | 3.69 | 2.49 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sarpsborg FK vs Rosenborg: match preview
Sarpsborg FK host Rosenborg in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market sees very little daylight between the two sides. Rosenborg are priced at 2.52 with Sarpsborg FK close behind at 2.61, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 40% and 38% respectively, while the draw sits at 3.85, implying around 26%. That tight spread points to a genuinely competitive match rather than a clear favourite. Our model's headline suggestion steps away from the result market altogether, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.61 as the recommended play, with a model confidence of 64% and a modest value edge of just over 3%. A separate angle worth noting is the draw, where the market price of 3.85 looks slightly generous against the model's fair probability of 27%, another small edge of just over 3%.
Verdict: The data points to a closely matched contest with no standout favourite, so the Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.61 is the most data-backed angle, supported by a 64% model confidence and a small edge. It is not a high-certainty pick, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate risk.
Upcoming Eliteserien fixtures
All Eliteserien tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Sarpsborg FK vs Rosenborg?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 64% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in Sarpsborg FK vs Rosenborg?+
Rosenborg are marginal favourites at 2.52 compared to Sarpsborg FK at 2.61, implying probabilities of about 40% and 38% respectively, so the gap is very narrow.
What is the draw priced at in this match?+
The best available draw price is 3.85, which implies roughly a 26% chance, and the model's fair probability estimate of 27% suggests a small value edge on that outcome.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
Yes, the model highlights two angles: Under 3.5 goals at 1.61 with a 64% confidence and 3.03% edge, and the draw at 3.85 with a 3.14% edge, though neither represents a certainty.
When does the match kick off?+
Sarpsborg FK vs Rosenborg takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Eliteserien.