Eliteserien · Sun · 17:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Tromso's 1.54 price implies a win probability of about 65 percent, the clearest signal in this market.
KFUM's 6.0 odds imply only a 17 percent chance, reflecting their underdog status according to the market.
The draw at 4.33 implies roughly 23 percent, offering a secondary, lower-probability outcome for bettors to consider.
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.12 carries a negative value edge of -7.53 percent against the model's 44 percent confidence, meaning the market price is slightly higher than the model's own estimate justifies.
No value picks reached the threshold required against market consensus for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 8.98 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 0.87. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TRO | X | 2 · KFU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.25 | 5.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.35 | 5.58 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.50 | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.50 | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 4.25 | 5.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Tromso host KFUM in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best prices make Tromso strong favourites at 1.54, which implies a win probability of roughly 65 percent. KFUM, by contrast, are priced at 6.0, translating to an implied chance of just under 17 percent, while the draw sits at 4.33, or about 23 percent. Those numbers suggest bookmakers see this as a home-dominant contest with little value in backing the underdog or the draw outright. Away from the result market, our model points to the Under 2.5 goals line at 2.12 as the recommended angle, though it comes with a modest negative edge against the model's own 44 percent confidence reading. It is a measured, goals-market alternative rather than a reaction to the one-sided match-result odds.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Tromso, but the flagged angle here is Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. With the model's confidence at 44 percent against an implied probability near 47 percent, the edge is slightly negative, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk, considered selection rather than a confident value play. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 56% confidence rating.
Tromso are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.54, which implies roughly a 65 percent win probability, compared to KFUM's 6.0 price implying about 17 percent.
The draw is priced at 4.33 with the best available odds, which implies a probability of approximately 23 percent.
The match-result market shows no value picks above the site's threshold. The Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.12 is the model's recommended angle, though it actually carries a slightly negative edge of -7.53 percent against the model's 44 percent confidence, so it should not be viewed as a strong value certainty.
Tromso vs KFUM takes place Sun · 17:15 in the Eliteserien.
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