Eliteserien · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bodø/Glimt are strongly favoured at 1.36, implying close to 73-74 percent win probability according to the market.
HamKam are a clear outsider at 7.95 (about 12-13 percent implied), with the draw priced at 5.67 (around 17-18 percent).
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.82 carries an implied probability near 55 percent, but the model's confidence reading is lower at 51 percent.
The value edge on the Over 3.5 goals selection is negative (-7.52 percent), meaning the model does not rate it as a genuine market inefficiency despite recommending it as the most interesting angle available.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 0-2 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 1-3 | 7.3% | 13.64 |
| 0-3 | 7.0% | 14.25 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.04 and 2.24. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HAM | X | 2 · BOD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 12.00 | 7.20 | 1.22 |
| Coolbet | 11.50 | 7.35 | 1.22 |
| 1xBet | 10.80 | 7.02 | 1.23 |
| Pinnacle | 9.72 | 6.92 | 1.23 |
| Nordic Bet | 11.50 | 7.00 | 1.20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.26 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eliteserien action sees HamKam host a heavily fancied Bodø/Glimt side, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who is expected to come out on top. Bodø/Glimt are priced at 1.36 for the win, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent, a strong statement of market confidence. HamKam, by contrast, sit out at 7.95, translating to just under 13 percent, while the draw at 5.67 implies around 17-18 percent. Rather than backing the outright result, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 1.82. That price implies roughly 55 percent probability, though the model's own confidence sits at 51 percent with a negative value edge, so this is presented as a plausible angle rather than a standout value play. No separate value picks against the match-result market have cleared our threshold this time.
Verdict: With no match-result value identified and Bodø/Glimt heavily odds-on, the Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.82 stands as the only flagged angle, though its negative value edge means it should be treated as a moderate-risk, model-driven suggestion rather than a confident value bet. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 55% confidence rating.
Bodø/Glimt are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent, compared to HamKam's 7.95 (about 12-13 percent).
The draw is priced at 5.67, implying a probability of around 17-18 percent according to the combined market odds.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold. The only flagged angle is Over 3.5 goals at 1.82, but this carries a negative value edge of -7.52 percent, so it should be seen as a moderate-confidence suggestion rather than a strong value bet.
HamKam vs Bodø/Glimt takes place Sat · 12:00 in the Eliteserien.
English