Eliteserien · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Kristiansund BK are priced shortest at 2.30 (about 43.5% implied), making them favourites but not strong ones.
Aalesund sit at 2.95 (about 33.9% implied), keeping the gap between the two sides relatively narrow.
The draw at 3.83 (about 26.1% implied) is not far behind Aalesund, underlining the competitiveness the market expects.
The Under 3.5 goals recommendation carries a model confidence of 58% but shows a negative value edge of -7.37%, meaning the model does not see this price as offering a clear mathematical advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.99 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 15.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.90 and 1.45. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · KB | X | 2 · AAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.85 | 2.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.78 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.89 | 2.66 |
| Betsson | 2.48 | 3.65 | 2.68 |
| GTbets | 2.48 | 3.78 | 2.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eliteserien action brings Kristiansund BK and Aalesund together, with the betting market leaning toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Kristiansund BK's best price of 2.30 implies a win probability of roughly 43.5%, ahead of Aalesund at 2.95 (about 33.9%) and the draw at 3.83 (around 26.1%), the kind of spread that points to a competitive, fairly tight contest rather than a lopsided one. With the three outcomes summing to just over 103%, the bookmaker margin here is modest, suggesting efficient pricing across the board. Our model's attention turns away from the match-result market entirely, instead flagging the Under 3.5 goals line at 1.60 as the recommended angle, built around a projected 58% likelihood of that outcome landing. It is a cautious, goals-focused pick rather than a result-based wager, reflecting the balanced nature of the three-way odds.
Verdict: The suggested Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.60 reflects a moderately favoured low-scoring tilt, but the -7.37% value edge indicates the price itself is not generous relative to the model's own estimate. It is a reasonable, low-drama option rather than a standout value play, and stakes should be sized conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 60% confidence rating.
Kristiansund BK are the market favourites at best odds of 2.30, implying roughly a 43.5% win probability, slightly ahead of Aalesund at 2.95 (about 33.9%).
The draw is available at 3.83, which implies an approximate 26.1% chance, keeping it within reasonable range of Aalesund's win probability.
No standout match-result value picks were identified above the model's threshold. The highlighted Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.60 actually carries a negative value edge of -7.37%, so it should be viewed as a measured option rather than a clear value bet.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Eliteserien.
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