Eliteserien · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Molde are priced at 1.36, implying roughly a 73-74 percent chance of victory according to the best available odds.
IK Start's best price of 7.5 reflects only about a 13 percent implied win probability, underlining the gap between the two sides in the market.
The draw at 5.6 (around 18 percent implied) is flagged as a value pick, with a fair probability estimate of 20 percent producing a 12.54 percent edge versus market consensus.
The model's recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a 50 percent implied confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.0 percent, meaning the price is not clearly favourable by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
| 1-1 | 7.1% | 14.03 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.59 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MOL | X | 2 · IS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.33 | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.35 | 5.75 | 7.95 |
| Betsson | 1.30 | 5.80 | 9.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 5.68 | 7.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.85 | 7.80 |
| GTbets | 1.35 | 5.41 | 7.18 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Molde host IK Start in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best prices make Molde strong favourites at 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent. IK Start are rated outsiders at 7.5 (about 13 percent implied), while the draw sits at 5.6, translating to around 18 percent. Added together those figures exceed 100 percent, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into the odds. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Over 3.5 goals at 1.92 as its headline recommendation, carrying a implied confidence of 50 percent, though the quoted value edge is slightly negative at -4.0 percent. Separately, the draw stands out as a value angle versus market consensus, with a fair probability estimate of 20 percent against the 5.6 price, an edge of over 12 percent. Both angles are worth weighing before kick-off.
Verdict: The data points to Molde as heavy favourites, with the draw emerging as the more statistically interesting value angle at 5.6. The model's own Over 3.5 goals tip, despite being highlighted, actually carries a small negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence one. Bet responsibly and size stakes with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Sandefjord v Lillestrom | 2.75 | 3.63 | 2.55 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 51% confidence rating.
Molde are clear favourites according to the market, priced at 1.36, which implies around a 73-74 percent chance of winning. IK Start are long outsiders at 7.5.
The best available draw price is 5.6, implying roughly an 18 percent chance. The model's fair probability estimate is slightly higher at 20 percent, producing a value edge of about 12.54 percent.
The clearest flagged value is on the draw at 5.6, with a 12.54 percent edge versus market consensus. The site's recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 actually shows a small negative edge of -4.0 percent, so it is not a clean value play by the model's own numbers.
Molde vs IK Start takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Eliteserien.
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